What's coming next
The outlook combines dated source statements and signals calculated from PRISMATIC data.
Dataset note
Coverage and update of the series
Dataset note: real PRISMATIC dataset data. Update: semiconductors SIA/WSTS through Q2 2026; memory TrendForce through Q2 2026, Q3 as a forecast; metals Westmetall/LME and FRED, monthly averages through August 2026, spot as of August 7, 2026.
What emerges from the data
- From datarule: ai massimidata as of 11/08/2026
Copper at period highs
Evidence. Spot 14,240, the highest value in the last 24 months (peak 14,215).
What it anticipates. Persistent cost pressure on cables and PCBs.
Confirmation or refutation. Next month's monthly average.
- From datarule: divergenzadata as of 11/08/2026
Gold: spot above the average while the average falls
Evidence. Spot 4,302 above last month's average (4,167), but the average is declining.
What it anticipates. Unclear direction after the move.
Confirmation or refutation. Next month's monthly average.
- From datarule: sotto il piccodata as of 11/08/2026
Gold below the peak
Evidence. Peak in Feb 26 (5,012); now 4,302 (-14.2%).
What it anticipates. Upside that lost momentum after the high.
Confirmation or refutation. Next month's monthly average.
- From datarule: ai massimidata as of 11/08/2026
Tin at period highs
Evidence. Spot 56,100, the highest value in the last 24 months (peak 55,945).
What it anticipates. Persistent cost pressure on soldering.
Confirmation or refutation. Next month's monthly average.
- From datarule: sotto il piccodata as of 11/08/2026
Aluminium below the peak
Evidence. Peak in May 26 (3,658); now 3,439 (-6.0%).
What it anticipates. Upside that lost momentum after the high.
Confirmation or refutation. Next month's monthly average.
- From datarule: tensione offertadata as of 11/08/2026
Copper: firm price with LME stocks falling sharply
Evidence. Stocks from 394,892 to 230,354 t (Jun to Aug) while the price rises (13,507 to 14,215).
What it anticipates. Market tight on the supply side.
Confirmation or refutation. Stock trend over the coming months.
- From datarule: decelerazionedata as of 11/08/2026
DRAM contract prices decelerating
Evidence. QoQ 92.5% to 60.5% to 15.5%, two consecutive declines.
What it anticipates. Approaching the peak on the memory price side.
Confirmation or refutation. Final Q3 contract prices.
- From datarule: rotazionedata as of 11/08/2026
Pressure rotating from DRAM to NAND
Evidence. DRAM 92.5% to 60.5%, NAND 57.5% to 72.5%.
What it anticipates. Price pressure shifts toward NAND and SSD.
Confirmation or refutation. Next quarter's contract prices.
- From datarule: accelerazionedata as of 11/08/2026
Semiconductor revenue accelerating
Evidence. QoQ 13.6% to 25.0% to 35.1%, two consecutive increases.
What it anticipates. Growth momentum reinforcing the cycle.
Confirmation or refutation. Next quarter's revenue.
- From datarule: revisione forecastdata as of 11/08/2026
2026 forecast revised upward
Evidence. From ~1,000 to >1,500 bn $ (May 4 to Aug 6).
What it anticipates. Rising expectations.
Confirmation or refutation. Second half 2026 revenue.
These signals are not written by hand: an engine applies deterministic rules to the series (24-month high, divergence, below peak, supply tension, deceleration, acceleration, rotation, revision). When the data updates, signals turn on or off by themselves. Each card indicates what would confirm or disprove it at the next data point.
What comes from the press
Dated forecast statements, picked up from reports · each one attributed, admitted only after human review
- From the press2027-2028
DRAM supply tight until 2027; rebalancing not before 2027-2028
TrendForce - From the press2H 2027
NAND Flash undersupplied throughout 2026, easing in 2H 2027
TrendForce - From the press2026
MLC NAND capacity -41.7% in 2026; last Samsung shipments June 2026
TrendForce - From the pressH2 2026
SLC NAND contract prices +120/170% in H2 2026 vs H1
TrendForce - From the pressQ3 2026
DDR2 contract prices +35/40% in Q3 2026
TrendForce - From the press2027
HBM contract prices rising sharply (multiples) in 2027
TrendForce - From the press2026
Smartphone production -15/20% and notebooks ~-10/15% in 2026
TrendForce - From the press2026
WSTS/SIA semiconductor forecast >1500 bn $ for 2026
SIA/WSTS - From the pressH2 2026
Upcoming price increases: TSMC 3nm ~15% H2, Intel +8/10% H2, July rounds
channel - From the press2027
Chinese export controls on gallium and germanium at least until 2027
industry report - From the press2026-2027
High-end MLCC in shortage: price increases from Murata/SEMCO/Taiyo Yuden/Yageo; rebalancing not before end of 2027
TrendForce - From the press2026
Shortage shifting toward power delivery (PMIC, VRM, SiC) for AI data centers, lead times 20/30 weeks
industry report - From the press2026
PCB materials under strain (CCL, glass fiber, copper foil), reaching standard FR-4
industry report