ASSODEL
ASSODEL
v2 MVP Observatory
Outlook · what's coming next

What's coming next

The outlook combines dated source statements and signals calculated from PRISMATIC data.

Dataset note

Coverage and update of the series

Dataset note: real PRISMATIC dataset data. Update: semiconductors SIA/WSTS through Q2 2026; memory TrendForce through Q2 2026, Q3 as a forecast; metals Westmetall/LME and FRED, monthly averages through August 2026, spot as of August 7, 2026.

What emerges from the data

From data
  • From datarule: ai massimidata as of 11/08/2026

    Copper at period highs

    Evidence. Spot 14,240, the highest value in the last 24 months (peak 14,215).

    What it anticipates. Persistent cost pressure on cables and PCBs.

    Confirmation or refutation. Next month's monthly average.

  • From datarule: divergenzadata as of 11/08/2026

    Gold: spot above the average while the average falls

    Evidence. Spot 4,302 above last month's average (4,167), but the average is declining.

    What it anticipates. Unclear direction after the move.

    Confirmation or refutation. Next month's monthly average.

  • From datarule: sotto il piccodata as of 11/08/2026

    Gold below the peak

    Evidence. Peak in Feb 26 (5,012); now 4,302 (-14.2%).

    What it anticipates. Upside that lost momentum after the high.

    Confirmation or refutation. Next month's monthly average.

  • From datarule: ai massimidata as of 11/08/2026

    Tin at period highs

    Evidence. Spot 56,100, the highest value in the last 24 months (peak 55,945).

    What it anticipates. Persistent cost pressure on soldering.

    Confirmation or refutation. Next month's monthly average.

  • From datarule: sotto il piccodata as of 11/08/2026

    Aluminium below the peak

    Evidence. Peak in May 26 (3,658); now 3,439 (-6.0%).

    What it anticipates. Upside that lost momentum after the high.

    Confirmation or refutation. Next month's monthly average.

  • From datarule: tensione offertadata as of 11/08/2026

    Copper: firm price with LME stocks falling sharply

    Evidence. Stocks from 394,892 to 230,354 t (Jun to Aug) while the price rises (13,507 to 14,215).

    What it anticipates. Market tight on the supply side.

    Confirmation or refutation. Stock trend over the coming months.

  • From datarule: decelerazionedata as of 11/08/2026

    DRAM contract prices decelerating

    Evidence. QoQ 92.5% to 60.5% to 15.5%, two consecutive declines.

    What it anticipates. Approaching the peak on the memory price side.

    Confirmation or refutation. Final Q3 contract prices.

  • From datarule: rotazionedata as of 11/08/2026

    Pressure rotating from DRAM to NAND

    Evidence. DRAM 92.5% to 60.5%, NAND 57.5% to 72.5%.

    What it anticipates. Price pressure shifts toward NAND and SSD.

    Confirmation or refutation. Next quarter's contract prices.

  • From datarule: accelerazionedata as of 11/08/2026

    Semiconductor revenue accelerating

    Evidence. QoQ 13.6% to 25.0% to 35.1%, two consecutive increases.

    What it anticipates. Growth momentum reinforcing the cycle.

    Confirmation or refutation. Next quarter's revenue.

  • From datarule: revisione forecastdata as of 11/08/2026

    2026 forecast revised upward

    Evidence. From ~1,000 to >1,500 bn $ (May 4 to Aug 6).

    What it anticipates. Rising expectations.

    Confirmation or refutation. Second half 2026 revenue.

These signals are not written by hand: an engine applies deterministic rules to the series (24-month high, divergence, below peak, supply tension, deceleration, acceleration, rotation, revision). When the data updates, signals turn on or off by themselves. Each card indicates what would confirm or disprove it at the next data point.

What comes from the press

Dated forecast statements, picked up from reports · each one attributed, admitted only after human review

From the press
  • From the press2027-2028

    DRAM supply tight until 2027; rebalancing not before 2027-2028

    TrendForce
  • From the press2H 2027

    NAND Flash undersupplied throughout 2026, easing in 2H 2027

    TrendForce
  • From the press2026

    MLC NAND capacity -41.7% in 2026; last Samsung shipments June 2026

    TrendForce
  • From the pressH2 2026

    SLC NAND contract prices +120/170% in H2 2026 vs H1

    TrendForce
  • From the pressQ3 2026

    DDR2 contract prices +35/40% in Q3 2026

    TrendForce
  • From the press2027

    HBM contract prices rising sharply (multiples) in 2027

    TrendForce
  • From the press2026

    Smartphone production -15/20% and notebooks ~-10/15% in 2026

    TrendForce
  • From the press2026

    WSTS/SIA semiconductor forecast >1500 bn $ for 2026

    SIA/WSTS
  • From the pressH2 2026

    Upcoming price increases: TSMC 3nm ~15% H2, Intel +8/10% H2, July rounds

    channel
  • From the press2027

    Chinese export controls on gallium and germanium at least until 2027

    industry report
  • From the press2026-2027

    High-end MLCC in shortage: price increases from Murata/SEMCO/Taiyo Yuden/Yageo; rebalancing not before end of 2027

    TrendForce
  • From the press2026

    Shortage shifting toward power delivery (PMIC, VRM, SiC) for AI data centers, lead times 20/30 weeks

    industry report
  • From the press2026

    PCB materials under strain (CCL, glass fiber, copper foil), reaching standard FR-4

    industry report