Signals and scorecard
Signals are captured at a given date and are not changed afterward: each new calculation generates a new snapshot. The verification columns are filled in the following quarter and feed the forecast-vs-actual scorecard.
Signal snapshot
Frozen as of 2026-08-11 · signals from data carry a rule and a source
Copper at period highs
Spot 14,240, the highest value in the last 24 months (peak 14,215).
Gold: spot above the average while the average falls
Spot 4,302 above last month's average (4,167), but the average is declining.
Gold below the peak
Peak in Feb 26 (5,012); now 4,302 (-14.2%).
Tin at period highs
Spot 56,100, the highest value in the last 24 months (peak 55,945).
Aluminium below the peak
Peak in May 26 (3,658); now 3,439 (-6.0%).
Copper: firm price with LME stocks falling sharply
Stocks from 394,892 to 230,354 t (Jun to Aug) while the price rises (13,507 to 14,215).
DRAM contract prices decelerating
QoQ 92.5% to 60.5% to 15.5%, two consecutive declines.
Pressure rotating from DRAM to NAND
DRAM 92.5% to 60.5%, NAND 57.5% to 72.5%.
Semiconductor revenue accelerating
QoQ 13.6% to 25.0% to 35.1%, two consecutive increases.
2026 forecast revised upward
From ~1,000 to >1,500 bn $ (May 4 to Aug 6).
DRAM supply tight until 2027; rebalancing not before 2027-2028
NAND Flash undersupplied throughout 2026, easing in 2H 2027
MLC NAND capacity -41.7% in 2026; last Samsung shipments June 2026
SLC NAND contract prices +120/170% in H2 2026 vs H1
DDR2 contract prices +35/40% in Q3 2026
HBM contract prices rising sharply (multiples) in 2027
Smartphone production -15/20% and notebooks ~-10/15% in 2026
WSTS/SIA semiconductor forecast >1500 bn $ for 2026
Upcoming price increases: TSMC 3nm ~15% H2, Intel +8/10% H2, July rounds
Chinese export controls on gallium and germanium at least until 2027
High-end MLCC in shortage: price increases from Murata/SEMCO/Taiyo Yuden/Yageo; rebalancing not before end of 2027
Shortage shifting toward power delivery (PMIC, VRM, SiC) for AI data centers, lead times 20/30 weeks
PCB materials under strain (CCL, glass fiber, copper foil), reaching standard FR-4
Rules engine on current data
Deterministic recalculation from the PRISMATIC series in the database. If it diverges from the snapshot, it is time to freeze a new one.
copper: spot price at a 24-month high
Spot 14,240 >= 24-month high 14,215.4 (2026-08).
Source: Westmetall/LME
copper: falling stocks with rising price
Stocks from 394,892 to 230,354 t in 3 months, price from 13,507.1 to 14,215.4.
Source: Westmetall/LME
gold: spot diverges from a declining monthly average
Spot 4,301.9 > 2026-08 average 4,166.9, which is below the average from 3 months earlier (4,577.1).
Source: Westmetall/London
gold: still below the period peak
Spot 4,301.9 versus peak 5,011.8 of 2026-02 (-14.2%).
Source: Westmetall/London
tin: spot price at a 24-month high
Spot 56,100 >= 24-month high 55,945 (2026-08).
Source: Westmetall/LME
aluminium: still below the period peak
Spot 3,438.9 versus peak 3,658.2 of 2026-05 (-6%).
Source: FRED/IMF (PALUMUSDM)
Semiconductors: quarterly growth accelerating
QoQ 13.6% (Q4 2025) › 25% (Q1 2026) › 35.1% (Q2 2026).
Source: SIA/WSTS
2026 forecast revised upward
From ~1000 bn $ (2026-05-04) to >1500 bn $ (2026-08-06).
Source: SIA/WSTS