ASSODEL
ASSODEL
Observatory
Advisor

Highlights & Analysis

The most relevant insights, highlights and interpretations emerging from the quarterly data for ASSODEL members.

Quarterly summary

2026 opens with a scenario of rising costs across the entire electronics supply chain and a structural memory shortage set to last until 2028.

For ASSODEL members the key message is one: those who plan supply, pricing and contracts in the next 60 days will find themselves in a structurally better position than the market.

Key Takeaways

The four points guiding purchasing and pricing decisions

Point of no return for memory

Q1 2026 is not the peak but the moment when pricing power structurally shifts to suppliers. Price peak expected Q1-Q2 2027, shortage until 2027-2028.

Widespread semiconductor price increases

The entire supply chain (analog, MCU, FPGA, power, passives, connectors) is applying increases between 5% and 85%. Letters received show a new wave taking effect from April 2026.

Raw materials under pressure

Copper +46%, gold +77%, aluminum +17% versus January 2025. Direct impacts on wiring, PCBs, connectors and custom mechanics.

Capacity reallocated to HBM

Over 70% of memory capacity has migrated to HBM for AI. The HBM market is expected to grow +60% in 2026, equal to 40% of total DRAM.

Recommended calls to action

Operational actions for members over the next 8 weeks

Plan orders in advance

Place POs at least 2 quarters ahead of need for legacy memory and components subject to EOL.

Diversify suppliers

Evaluate second-source options for MLC NAND, 32-bit MCUs and tantalum passives to mitigate allocation risk.

Update cost models

Include the impact of copper, gold and USD/CNY exchange rate in BOMs. Update customer price lists in line with +10-20% on PCBs and +20% on IPCs.

Monitor geopolitical risk

The Israel-USA-Iran conflict may cause delays and raw material shortages: keep safety buffers on critical lines.

Analyst insights

Qualitative reading of the data

The legacy memory situation is not the result of falling demand, but of a structural migration of capex, R&D and production capacity toward AI nodes. This means legacy memory ASPs will remain structurally high even with stable unit demand.

The combination of price increases announced by leading manufacturers (TI 15-85%, ADI 15-30%, ST double digit, NXP, onsemi, Infineon) and longer lead times on DDR4/LPDDR4 of up to 36-48 weeks makes a purely JIT purchasing strategy very risky.

On the raw materials front, the combination of copper +46% and gold +77% is already producing a domino effect on PCBs (+10%), wiring and connectors. For members exposed to Industrial PCs, the cumulative impact of memory and PCB costs requires repricing by H1 2026.

Our recommendation: treat the next quarter as a window to consolidate multi-year contracts, lock in allocations and update price lists, before the peaks expected for Q1-Q2 2027 become reality.