ASSODEL
ASSODEL
Observatory
Quarterly Data

Memory Market

DRAM and NAND: sharply rising prices, capacity reallocated to HBM for AI, shortage expected until 2027-2028.

DRAM Contract 1Q26
+90/95% QoQ
Largest historical increase
NAND Flash 1Q26
+55/60% QoQ
Capacity reallocated to DRAM
MLC NAND 2026F
-41,7%
Sharp capacity contraction

Memory Price Forecasts

Blended % change · 4Q25 vs 1Q26 (revised)

Source: TrendForce, Feb. 2026

MLC NAND Capacity - YoY Growth/Decline

2021–2026F

Market situation

Legacy memory is being progressively phased out

Legacy DDR2, DDR3, DDR4, LPDDR4 and MLC-eMMC memory is undergoing rapid divestment. In 2023 they enjoyed 100% fab support; in 2025 that support has already dropped to ~40%, and between 2027-2028 most legacy nodes will reach effective EOL.

Advanced memory (DDR5, LPDDR5X, LPDDR6, GDDR7, HBM4E) is constrained from the opposite side: it requires sub-15nm DRAM scaling, EUV, TSV, hybrid bonding and advanced packaging, all scarce resources.

Leading suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) have already exhausted their 2026 capacity, with expected shortages driving price increases across all four quarters.